This Site is Now in a “Shakedown” Phase
Testing and Refinements are Still Underway

Investing With Reason

All Data
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  Particulars of This Chart

  • Annual returns of 12.8% for a Retail Backtest portfolio versus 7.2% for the Benchmark... possible ?
  • No short sales; just long positions in liquid ETFs.
  • For this particular example the portfolio is drawn from the following list of ETFs, by ticker symbol: EWA, EWC, EWG, EWH, EWJ, EWS, EWU, EWW, MDY and SPY.
  • The Benchmark portfolio holds nearly equal dollar amounts of each of the ETFs, with re-balancing occurring rather frequently (and so the benchmark portfolio is always 100% long, which is not radically different from “buy-and-hold”).
  • Commissions, the effect of the bid-ask spread, slippage due to poor trade execution, etc., are not accounted for, but dividends are treated as having been reinvested in the portfolio and interest is paid on cash held in the Retail Backtest portfolio (based on the discount rate of 13-week US Treasury bills).

What Am I Looking At?

This is a work in progress, hence you are not quite yet being invited to purchase a subscription to a published program. The purpose of this site is to offer practical programs for reducing the risk of owning securities— avoiding stock market crashes and thereby increasing gains in the long run. Funds are not managed here, nor is investment or financial advice dispensed. Please take a look at the chart on this page which shows what $1 invested would become with time. Which of the charted outcomes would you rather have? The red or the black? The generally-better outcome that is plotted in black is admittedly hypothetical, but it is based on science. The results are from a new Retail Backtest portfolio management program that uses price histories alone.

What Can I See Now That's Convincing?

Presently the most important whitepapers for you to read are “Does Anything Work?” and “Does Momentum Work?”, which are under the Articles menu above. You have to be either earnest or a committed professional to get all the way through them, but a spirited effort was made to make them readable and to make the first one intriguing and possibly even a bit entertaining. The second is both a detailed description and explanation of the testing procedure the like of which is applied to all of Retail Backtest's offerings, and, a full disclosure of an apparently-viable improved momentum program. Ever hear of the obligation to “refute the null hypothesis”? You'll be a past master of hypothesis testing if you make it all the way through both articles.

Can I See the Trades?

Under the Performance menu select any one of the momentum pages. You'll find detailed charts and tables. Momentum as a driving force for portfolio management is a very simple idea, yet it has a considerable amount of support in academic research. It's an example of what can be done, but, it's not the last word. The chart above on this page is the result of an entirely different program which is still undergoing testing. Hence no position sizes in the portfolio's securities are available for it now. Please read the Terms of Use document (accessible from the footer below), which is reasonably brief and which does not consist of fine print and legalese.